Trevor Story -- Betting Insights

Trevor Story enters Tuesday's Red Sox-Mariners matchup with strong recent form, going 3-for-4 with an RBI in his last game. Story leads Boston in home runs (5) and batting average (.337), ranking 25th league-wide in both homers and RBIs. The game starts at 6:45 PM ET with Bryce Miller on the mound for Seattle.

Story's 2025 season shows consistent offensive production. In 22 games, he has recorded base hits in 77.3% of contests (17 games) and logged 9 multi-hit games (40.9%). He has hit a home run in 18.2% of his games and scored in 40.9% of contests. He has driven in at least one run in 27.3% of his games (6 of 22), including three games with multiple RBIs.

Betting props reflect Story's strong form: Hits over 0.5 (-222), Home Runs over 0.5 (+575), RBI over 0.5 (+165), Runs over 0.5 (+120), Total Bases over 1.5 (+125), and Stolen Bases over 0.5 (+333). Story's career record against Miller stands at 1-for-3, with a 1-for-3 performance last season in head-to-head matchups.

This content is a player props betting tool from FTA that aggregates Trevor Story's projected statistical performance against live betting lines from major sportsbooks. Trevor Story is a 31-year-old shortstop for the Boston Red Sox with a career .208 batting average, 2 home runs, 18 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in the current season. The platform provides real-time odds comparison across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars for various prop bet categories including hits, home runs, total bases, RBIs, runs, doubles, singles, walks, and stolen bases.

FTA's core feature is comparing its algorithmic projections against posted sportsbook lines to identify potential value opportunities. When FTA's projection for a statistic exceeds the posted line, the over is highlighted as a potential edge; conversely, when projections fall below the line, the under is suggested. The platform also provides hit rate analysis showing how frequently Story has gone over or under specific prop lines in recent games, with recent data showing 1/1 over on runs and hits in his most recent game on 3/19. This data-driven approach allows bettors to identify significant gaps between algorithmic projections and sportsbook offerings to inform their prop betting decisions.

Trevor Story, the 33-year-old Boston Red Sox shortstop, enters the 2026 season with betting prop odds available for home runs and RBIs. Current projections set his 2026 averages at 0.5 home runs per game and 1.0 RBIs per game. Through the first two games of the season, Story has appeared in games on March 26 and 28 against Cincinnati, accumulating 1 home run and 2 RBIs across 11 at-bats with a .182 batting average and 5 strikeouts.

Historically, Story's performance has fluctuated significantly since joining the Red Sox in 2022. His best seasons came with Colorado (2018-2019), where he averaged .291-.294 with 35-37 home runs and .554-.567 slugging percentages. His 2025 season with Boston showed solid production with 157 games played, 161 hits, 25 home runs, and 96 RBIs with a .263 average. However, performance has declined in subsequent Boston seasons, with 2023 showing a .203 average and 2024 limited to only 26 games.

Trevor Story player props for July 12, 2025 are analyzed across multiple betting categories. The fair odds tables establish baseline valuations: Home Runs at 0.5 line shows +574/-488, Hits at 0.5 shows -181/+189, Walks at 0.5 shows +272/-252, Runs at 0.5 shows +120/-119, and Total Bases at 1.5 shows +131/-129. RBI at 0.5 line sits at +183/-175, while Hits+Runs+RBIs combined at 1.5 line shows -112/+113.

Sportsbook comparison reveals significant line variations. Home Runs props range from ESPN BET's 1.5 line at +2000 to multiple books offering 0.5 at +400 to +600. Hits props show the broadest variance, with Hard Rock Bet at 3.5 (+2000), down to consensus 0.5 lines ranging from -205 to -250 across DraftKings, Caesars, Fanduel, and ESPN BET. Vig percentages across books typically range from 5.4% to 13.4%, with most clustering in the 6-8% range, indicating competitive market pricing for the most liquid props.

Trevor Story faces Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot on Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 7:05 PM ET in Tampa. Story enters the matchup riding a five-game hitting streak and batting .429 with one home run in recent games. He has recorded 3 home runs this season (44th in MLB) with 8 RBIs, hitting a home run in 17.6% of his games and 4.2% of his at-bats.

Pepiot makes his fourth start for the Rays with a 1-1 record, 3.38 ERA, and 16 strikeouts through 16 2/3 innings. His most recent outing was 5 innings against the Angels, allowing 3 earned runs on 6 hits. Among qualifying pitchers, his 3.38 ERA ranks 43rd, 1.500 WHIP ranks 77th, and 9 K/9 ranks 36th in MLB.

A critical factor for this prop is the Rays' defensive vulnerability: they allow the second-most home runs in baseball with 25 total (1.6 per game). The Story home run prop is listed at over 0.5 runs with +500 odds at BetMGM.